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Al Ahed vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Championship Round - 4 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 18:30

Al Ahed

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Ansar

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.3%0-210.8%0-37.5%0-4+6.4%1 1-04.5%1-19.5%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.1%2-14.3%2-24.5%2-33.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 22.2% 4.50 -0.9%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 56.2% 61.7% 1.62 -9.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 41.1% 35.3% 2.83 +16.3%

BTTS 60.1% 57.5% 1.74 +4.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 27.9% 3.58 +19.2%

Away O1.5 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob60.1%

A 56% / xG 0.9-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 0–2 10.8%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahed0.9

Al Ansar2.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHED · PPG 1.58

AL ANSAR · PPG 2.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.18 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahed (H) 21.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Al Ansar (A) 56.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahed face Al Ansar in Lebanon - Premier League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahed a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Al Ansar 56%, so Al Ansar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Ahed and 2.1 for Al Ansar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahed are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 2.60 for Al Ansar. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.2%.

Al Ahed vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lebanon - Premier League Predictions