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Jwaaya FC vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Championship Round - 5 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 18:30

Jwaaya FC

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Ansar

PPG 2.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-115.7%0-29.2%0-33.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.1%1-113.1%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.7%2-15.5%2-23.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.3%3-11.5%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 48.3% — — —

Over 2.5 49.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.5%

A 48% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–0 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jwaaya FC0.8

Al Ansar1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JWAAYA FC · PPG 1.86

AL ANSAR · PPG 2.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.34, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jwaaya FC (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Ansar (A) 48.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jwaaya FC face Al Ansar in Lebanon - Premier League on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jwaaya FC a 24% chance, the draw 28% and Al Ansar 48%, so Al Ansar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Jwaaya FC and 1.2 for Al Ansar (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jwaaya FC are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 2.45 for Al Ansar.

Jwaaya FC vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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