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Al Ahed vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Championship Round - 4 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 13:00

Al Ahed

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Ansar

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.3%0-210.8%0-37.5%0-4+6.4%1 1-04.5%1-19.5%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.1%2-14.3%2-24.5%2-33.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 56.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.1% — — —

BTTS 60.1% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 53.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob60.1%

A 56% / xG 0.9-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 0–2 10.8%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahed0.9

Al Ansar2.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHED · PPG 1.58

AL ANSAR · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.18 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahed (H) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Ansar (A) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahed face Al Ansar in Lebanon - Premier League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahed a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Al Ansar 56%, so Al Ansar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Ahed and 2.1 for Al Ansar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahed are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 2.60 for Al Ansar.

Al Ahed vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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