Today / Lebanon - Premier League / Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed

Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Championship Round - 5 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 14:30

Al Nejmeh

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Ahed

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.1%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-19.9%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.0%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-14.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 17.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.9% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nejmeh1.9

Al Ahed0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NEJMEH · PPG 2.50

AL AHED · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Nejmeh (H) 62.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Ahed (A) 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nejmeh face Al Ahed in Lebanon - Premier League on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nejmeh a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Al Ahed 17%, so Al Nejmeh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Nejmeh and 0.7 for Al Ahed (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nejmeh are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.79 for Al Ahed.

Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lebanon - Premier League Predictions