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Al Nejmeh vs Jwaaya FC Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Championship Round - 4 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 13:00

Al Nejmeh

PPG 2.46 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jwaaya FC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-19.0%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-111.7%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-17.6%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.3%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% — — —

Draw 26.0% — — —

Away win 20.1% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 0–0 14.9%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nejmeh1.3

Jwaaya FC0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NEJMEH · PPG 2.46

JWAAYA FC · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Nejmeh (H) 53.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jwaaya FC (A) 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nejmeh face Jwaaya FC in Lebanon - Premier League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nejmeh a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Jwaaya FC 20%, so Al Nejmeh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Nejmeh and 0.6 for Jwaaya FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nejmeh are averaging 2.46 points per game versus 1.67 for Jwaaya FC.

Al Nejmeh vs Jwaaya FC Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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