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Ekranas vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Ekranas

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Žalgiris II

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.0%0-26.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.6%1-111.5%1-28.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 34.7% 2.88 +5.7%

Draw 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Away win 38.8% 48.8% 2.05 -20.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 60.6% 1.65 +1.0%

Over 3.5 37.3% 39.7% 2.52 -6.0%

BTTS 61.3% 66.2% 1.51 -7.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 48.0% 53.5% 1.87 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.6%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekranas1.4

Žalgiris II1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EKRANAS · PPG 0.75

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ekranas (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +5.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Žalgiris II (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekranas face Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekranas a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Žalgiris II 39%, so Žalgiris II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ekranas and 1.5 for Žalgiris II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekranas are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Žalgiris II. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.4%.

Ekranas vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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