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Aktobe vs Okzhetpes Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 15:00

Aktobe

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Okzhetpes

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.2%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-19.1%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-17.2%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-16.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 46.5% 2.15 +31.6%

Draw 20.4% 29.9% 3.35 -19.0%

Away win 18.4% 33.3% 3.00 -26.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 58.8% 1.70 +8.3%

Over 3.5 40.0% 36.4% 2.75 +10.0%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 61.8% 51.8% 1.93 +19.3%

Away O1.5 29.1% 42.6% 2.35 -19.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 61% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aktobe2.2

Okzhetpes1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AKTOBE · PPG 2.30

OKZHETPES · PPG 1.38

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aktobe (H) 61.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +31.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -19.0%

Okzhetpes (A) 18.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aktobe face Okzhetpes in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aktobe a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Okzhetpes 18%, so Aktobe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Aktobe and 1.0 for Okzhetpes (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aktobe are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.38 for Okzhetpes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.3%.

Aktobe vs Okzhetpes Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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