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Kaspiy vs Zhenys Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Kaspiy

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zhenys

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-110.0%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-112.8%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.2%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 39.2% 2.55 +25.2%

Draw 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -7.6%

Away win 23.6% 39.2% 2.55 -23.9%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 26.4% 26.7% 3.75 -0.6%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 38.5% 39.2% 2.55 -1.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 39.2% 2.55 -29.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 16.0%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspiy1.3

Zhenys0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIY · PPG 1.43

ZHENYS · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kaspiy (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +25.2%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.6%

Zhenys (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspiy face Zhenys in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspiy a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Zhenys 24%, so Kaspiy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kaspiy and 0.8 for Zhenys (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspiy are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Zhenys. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.2%.

Kaspiy vs Zhenys Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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