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Zhetysu vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Zhetysu

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kyzyl-Zhar

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+33.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-17.6%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.8%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.7%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 40.8% 2.45 +33.0%

Draw 25.0% 32.3% 3.10 -13.5%

Away win 20.6% 36.4% 2.75 -26.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.8% 1.93 -3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

BTTS 50.1% 59.9% 1.67 -16.3%

Home O1.5 46.4% 43.5% 2.30 +6.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 40.8% 2.45 -30.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.1%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zhetysu1.6

Kyzyl-Zhar0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZHETYSU · PPG 1.12

KYZYL-ZHAR · PPG 0.62

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zhetysu (H) 54.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +33.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.5%

Kyzyl-Zhar (A) 20.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zhetysu face Kyzyl-Zhar in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zhetysu a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Kyzyl-Zhar 21%, so Zhetysu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zhetysu and 0.8 for Kyzyl-Zhar (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zhetysu are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.62 for Kyzyl-Zhar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.6%.

Zhetysu vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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