Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Hestrafor vs Åstorp

Hestrafor vs Åstorp Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Hestrafor

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Åstorp

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.6%0-22.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.3%1-16.6%1-25.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.5%3-17.0%3-25.5%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-18.1%4+-26.3%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 40.0% 2.50 +37.5%

Draw 21.5% 27.0% 3.70 -12.3%

Away win 23.5% 43.5% 2.30 -27.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 72.5% 1.38 -7.1%

Over 3.5 47.8% 51.3% 1.95 -6.8%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 64.0% 56.5% 1.77 +13.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 58.8% 1.70 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hestrafor2.5

Åstorp1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HESTRAFOR · PPG 1.17

ÅSTORP · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hestrafor (H) 55.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +37.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.3%

Åstorp (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hestrafor face Åstorp in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hestrafor a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Åstorp 24%, so Hestrafor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Hestrafor and 1.6 for Åstorp (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hestrafor are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.14 for Åstorp. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Hestrafor vs Åstorp Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions