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Lindome vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Lindome

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jonsered

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.7%1-27.5%1-33.9%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 46.5% 2.15 +6.0%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 28.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

Over 2.5 63.6% 75.2% 1.33 -15.4%

Over 3.5 40.6% 55.6% 1.80 -26.9%

BTTS 62.1% 78.1% 1.28 -20.5%

Home O1.5 50.0% 64.5% 1.55 -22.5%

Away O1.5 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lindome1.8

Jonsered1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LINDOME · PPG 1.14

JONSERED · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lindome (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +6.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Jonsered (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lindome face Jonsered in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lindome a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Jonsered 28%, so Lindome are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lindome and 1.5 for Jonsered (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lindome are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.43 for Jonsered.

Lindome vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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