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Kongahälla vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:30

Kongahälla

PPG 0.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Onsala

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.5%0-27.7%0-34.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.1%1-111.5%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.3%2-17.0%2-25.7%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

Draw 24.8% 26.3% 3.80 -3.5%

Away win 44.3% 50.0% 2.00 -11.4%

Over 2.5 61.2% 71.4% 1.40 -14.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 50.0% 2.00 -25.4%

BTTS 59.5% 74.1% 1.35 -19.7%

Home O1.5 33.1% 51.8% 1.93 -36.1%

Away O1.5 48.0% 62.5% 1.60 -23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.5%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongahälla1.2

Onsala1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGAHÄLLA · PPG 0.71

ONSALA · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kongahälla (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.5%

Onsala (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongahälla face Onsala in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongahälla a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Onsala 44%, so Onsala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kongahälla and 1.6 for Onsala (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongahälla are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Onsala.

Kongahälla vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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