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Korsnäs vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Korsnäs

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Helges

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.5%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.7%1-111.2%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 28.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -6.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korsnäs1.7

Helges1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KORSNÄS · PPG 0.43

HELGES · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Korsnäs (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Helges (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Korsnäs face Helges in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korsnäs a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Helges 24%, so Korsnäs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Korsnäs and 1.0 for Helges (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korsnäs are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.33 for Helges.

Korsnäs vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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