Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 / Sarpsborg 08 II vs Ørn Horten

Sarpsborg 08 II vs Ørn Horten Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 17:00

Sarpsborg 08 II

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ørn Horten

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.8%0-24.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.0%1-18.8%1-27.7%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.9%3-15.0%3-24.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 33.7% — — —

Over 2.5 66.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -38.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.5%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 08 II1.9

Ørn Horten1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 II · PPG 1.80

ØRN HORTEN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 II (H) 44.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ørn Horten (A) 33.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 II face Ørn Horten in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 II a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Ørn Horten 34%, so Sarpsborg 08 II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sarpsborg 08 II and 1.8 for Ørn Horten (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 II are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Ørn Horten.

Sarpsborg 08 II vs Ørn Horten Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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