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Kristianstad W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Kristianstad W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

AIK W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.8%0-23.4%0-32.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.6%1-17.9%1-26.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.3%3-15.7%3-25.0%3-32.9%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.7%4+-24.1%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Draw 22.0% 31.3% 3.20 -17.8%

Away win 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

Over 2.5 67.0% 60.6% 1.65 +10.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 40.0% 2.50 +12.0%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 52.4% 1.91 +14.8%

Away O1.5 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad W2.1

AIK W1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD W · PPG 1.67

AIK W · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.8%

AIK W (A) 32.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad W face AIK W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad W a 45% chance, the draw 22% and AIK W 33%, so Kristianstad W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Kristianstad W and 1.7 for AIK W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for AIK W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.8%.

Kristianstad W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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