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MetroStars vs Adelaide United II Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 09:45

MetroStars

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide United II

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.6%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.8%1-18.3%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.5%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-17.6%4+-23.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 74.1% 1.35 -22.2%

Draw 21.5% 21.7% 4.60 -0.7%

Away win 21.0% 14.3% 7.00 +28.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 71.4% 1.40 -11.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

BTTS 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Home O1.5 60.1% 73.5% 1.36 -18.3%

Away O1.5 27.4% 25.0% 4.00 +5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 58% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MetroStars2.3

Adelaide United II0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

METROSTARS · PPG 1.89

ADELAIDE UNITED II · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MetroStars (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -22.2%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.7%

Adelaide United II (A) 21.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

MetroStars face Adelaide United II in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MetroStars a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide United II 21%, so MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for MetroStars and 0.9 for Adelaide United II (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MetroStars are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.56 for Adelaide United II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.3%.

MetroStars vs Adelaide United II Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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