Today / USA - MLS / New York City FC vs Toronto FC
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction— USA - MLS
Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
Home Over 1.5
Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 33 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 62% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.56
TORONTO FC · PPG 0.62
xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.56 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York City FC face Toronto FC in USA - MLS on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City FC a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Toronto FC 18%, so New York City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for New York City FC and 1.0 for Toronto FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City FC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.62 for Toronto FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.4%.