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Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 23:00

Atlanta United II logo
Atlanta United II
PPG 2.22 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Carolina Core logo
Carolina Core
PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.5%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.6%1-16.6%1-23.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-19.0%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.1%3-18.1%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-110.6%4+-25.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 64.7%
Draw 16.8%
Away win 18.5%
Over 2.5 67.0%
Over 3.5 44.8%
BTTS 60.0%
Home O1.5 64.0%
Away O1.5 30.0%

League track record

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%
O2.5 79%
BTTS 36%
Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.0%

H 65% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%
#2 2–0 8.9%
#3 3–1 8.1%
#4 3–0 8.1%
#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta United II2.7
Carolina Core1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UNITED II · PPG 2.22

CAROLINA CORE · PPG 0.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
66%
STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 2.22 vs 0.30 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta United II (H) 64.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 16.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Carolina Core (A) 18.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta United II face Carolina Core in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta United II a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Carolina Core 19%, so Atlanta United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Atlanta United II and 1.0 for Carolina Core (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta United II are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.30 for Carolina Core.

PredictVantage

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