Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II

Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 02:00

Tacoma Defiance

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colorado Rapids II

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.2%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-110.8%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.4%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 55.6% 1.80 -1.4%

Draw 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Away win 20.3% 27.8% 3.60 -16.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 63.7% 1.57 -21.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 44.1% 2.27 -20.9%

BTTS 48.9% 69.4% 1.44 -29.6%

Home O1.5 53.5% 62.1% 1.61 -13.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 40.0% 2.50 -29.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 11%

ROI 18.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.9%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacoma Defiance1.7

Colorado Rapids II0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TACOMA DEFIANCE · PPG 1.40

COLORADO RAPIDS II · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tacoma Defiance (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.4%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

Colorado Rapids II (A) 20.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacoma Defiance face Colorado Rapids II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacoma Defiance a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Colorado Rapids II 20%, so Tacoma Defiance are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tacoma Defiance and 0.7 for Colorado Rapids II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacoma Defiance are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.33 for Colorado Rapids II.

Tacoma Defiance vs Colorado Rapids II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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