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Connecticut FC vs Columbus Crew II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 22:00

Connecticut FC logo
Connecticut FC
PPG 1.44 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Columbus Crew II logo
Columbus Crew II
PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.1%0-23.3%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.4%1-18.5%1-26.7%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.8%3-16.1%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.0%4+-24.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%
Draw 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%
Away win 27.7% 28.6% 3.50 -1.8%
Over 2.5 67.0% 69.4% 1.44 -3.5%
Over 3.5 44.5% 50.5% 1.98 -11.9%
BTTS 64.5% 71.4% 1.40 -9.7%
Home O1.5 61.8% 66.2% 1.51 -6.7%
Away O1.5 49.0% 45.0% 2.22 +8.8%

League track record

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%
O2.5 75%
BTTS 0%
Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%
#2 2–1 8.8%
#3 2–2 6.9%
#4 1–2 6.7%
#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Connecticut FC2.1
Columbus Crew II1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CONNECTICUT FC · PPG 1.44

COLUMBUS CREW II · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
60%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Connecticut FC (H) 49.9%
ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -10.2%
Draw 22.4%
ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%
Columbus Crew II (A) 27.7%
ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Connecticut FC face Columbus Crew II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Connecticut FC a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Columbus Crew II 28%, so Connecticut FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Connecticut FC and 1.6 for Columbus Crew II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Connecticut FC are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.20 for Columbus Crew II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.8%.

PredictVantage

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