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Super Nova 2 vs Riga Mariners Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Super Nova 2

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Riga Mariners

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-110.0%0-28.1%0-34.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.2%2-16.8%2-25.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 25.0% 4.00 +27.2%

Draw 25.2% 25.0% 4.00 +0.5%

Away win 42.9% 61.7% 1.62 -30.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 66.7% 1.50 -19.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 46.1% 2.17 -30.1%

BTTS 55.4% 66.2% 1.51 -16.4%

Home O1.5 32.6% 36.2% 2.76 -10.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 68.0% 1.47 -29.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 0–2 8.1%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova 21.2

Riga Mariners1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA 2 · PPG 1.86

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 2.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova 2 (H) 31.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +27.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.5%

Riga Mariners (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -30.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova 2 face Riga Mariners in Latvia - 1. Liga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova 2 a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Riga Mariners 43%, so Riga Mariners are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Super Nova 2 and 1.6 for Riga Mariners (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova 2 are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 2.29 for Riga Mariners. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.4%.

Super Nova 2 vs Riga Mariners Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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