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Metta / LU vs Tukums II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 16:00

Metta / LU

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tukums II

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +3.97 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.7%1-11.4%1-20.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-04.0%2-13.4%2-21.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-15.5%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-030.4%4+-125.7%4+-210.9%4+-33.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.1% — — —

Draw 10.6% — — —

Away win 7.3% — — —

Over 2.5 79.6% — — —

Over 3.5 61.3% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob57.8%

H 82% / xG 4.8-0.8 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.8%

#2 5–0 7.5%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 3–0 6.5%

#5 5–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metta / LU4.8

Tukums II0.8

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

METTA / LU · PPG 2.57

TUKUMS II · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.97 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Metta / LU (H) 82.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 10.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tukums II (A) 7.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Metta / LU face Tukums II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metta / LU a 82% chance, the draw 11% and Tukums II 7%, so Metta / LU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.8 for Metta / LU and 0.8 for Tukums II (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metta / LU are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.67 for Tukums II.

Metta / LU vs Tukums II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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