Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II

Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 15:00

Valmiera / BSS

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Riga FC II

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.9%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.3%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-19.2%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.3%3-17.8%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-19.1%4+-23.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% — — —

Draw 17.9% — — —

Away win 18.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 42.1% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 64% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valmiera / BSS2.5

Riga FC II0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VALMIERA / BSS · PPG 2.50

RIGA FC II · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Valmiera / BSS (H) 64.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Riga FC II (A) 18.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valmiera / BSS face Riga FC II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valmiera / BSS a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Riga FC II 18%, so Valmiera / BSS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Valmiera / BSS and 0.8 for Riga FC II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valmiera / BSS are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Riga FC II.

Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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