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Kingston City vs Springvale Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 09:45

Kingston City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Springvale

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.2%0-25.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.4%1-111.1%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 32.0% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kingston City1.5

Springvale1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGSTON CITY · PPG 1.33

SPRINGVALE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kingston City (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Springvale (A) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kingston City face Springvale in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kingston City a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Springvale 32%, so Kingston City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kingston City and 1.5 for Springvale (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kingston City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Springvale.

Kingston City vs Springvale Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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