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Essendon Royals SC vs Kingston City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:30

Essendon Royals SC

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kingston City

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.54 for Home, form 2.10 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.0%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.4%1-13.6%1-21.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.1%2-16.5%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-17.8%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-016.7%4+-117.8%4+-29.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 9.5% — — —

Over 2.5 75.4% — — —

Over 3.5 53.4% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 73% / xG 3.6-1.1 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 3–0 7.3%

#3 4–1 7.0%

#4 4–0 6.6%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Essendon Royals SC3.6

Kingston City1.1

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESSENDON ROYALS SC · PPG 2.10

KINGSTON CITY · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.54 for Home, form 2.10 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Essendon Royals SC (H) 73.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kingston City (A) 9.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Essendon Royals SC face Kingston City in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Essendon Royals SC a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Kingston City 10%, so Essendon Royals SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Essendon Royals SC and 1.1 for Kingston City (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Essendon Royals SC are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.50 for Kingston City.

Essendon Royals SC vs Kingston City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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