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Eastern Lions vs Box Hill Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:45

Eastern Lions

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Box Hill

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.7%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.9%1-112.6%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-18.2%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 33.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% — — —

Away O1.5 37.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Lions1.3

Box Hill1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN LIONS · PPG 1.50

BOX HILL · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Lions (H) 40.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Box Hill (A) 33.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Lions face Box Hill in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Lions a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Box Hill 33%, so Eastern Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Eastern Lions and 1.3 for Box Hill (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Lions are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Box Hill.

Eastern Lions vs Box Hill Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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