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Moreland City vs Werribee City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 04:00

Moreland City

PPG 0.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Werribee City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.5%0-26.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.0%1-19.6%1-29.1%1-35.8%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.0%2-26.7%2-34.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.4%3-23.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 41.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 63.7% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.7%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreland City1.5

Werribee City1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MORELAND CITY · PPG 0.38

WERRIBEE CITY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Moreland City (H) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Werribee City (A) 41.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreland City face Werribee City in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreland City a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Werribee City 42%, so Werribee City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Moreland City and 1.9 for Werribee City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreland City are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Werribee City.

Moreland City vs Werribee City Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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