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Keilor Park vs Bayside Argonauts Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 09:30

Keilor Park

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bayside Argonauts

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.2%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.0%1-111.2%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 32.3% — — —

Over 2.5 62.4% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 48.7% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keilor Park1.6

Bayside Argonauts1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KEILOR PARK · PPG 2.44

BAYSIDE ARGONAUTS · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Keilor Park (H) 43.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bayside Argonauts (A) 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Keilor Park face Bayside Argonauts in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keilor Park a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Bayside Argonauts 32%, so Keilor Park are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Keilor Park and 1.4 for Bayside Argonauts (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keilor Park are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.80 for Bayside Argonauts.

Keilor Park vs Bayside Argonauts Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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