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Box Hill vs Keilor Park Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 09:30

Box Hill

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Keilor Park

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.1%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.6%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 25.8% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Box Hill1.6

Keilor Park1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOX HILL · PPG 1.55

KEILOR PARK · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Box Hill (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Keilor Park (A) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Box Hill face Keilor Park in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Box Hill a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Keilor Park 26%, so Box Hill are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Box Hill and 1.1 for Keilor Park (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Box Hill are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.09 for Keilor Park.

Box Hill vs Keilor Park Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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