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BuxDu vs Pakhtakor II Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 14:00

BuxDu

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pakhtakor II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.8%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.0%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 26.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BuxDu1.5

Pakhtakor II1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXDU · PPG 1.40

PAKHTAKOR II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BuxDu (H) 48.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pakhtakor II (A) 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BuxDu face Pakhtakor II in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BuxDu a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Pakhtakor II 27%, so BuxDu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for BuxDu and 1.2 for Pakhtakor II (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BuxDu are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Pakhtakor II.

BuxDu vs Pakhtakor II Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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