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Gazalkent vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Regular Season - 11 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 14:30

Gazalkent

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Metalourg

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-112.0%0-210.5%0-36.1%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.8%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.0%2-15.2%2-24.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.3% 32.3% 3.10 -20.4%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Away win 54.8% 50.0% 2.00 +9.6%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 31.4% 35.1% 2.85 -10.5%

BTTS 52.3% 57.5% 1.74 -9.0%

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.3%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–2 10.5%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gazalkent0.9

Metalourg1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GAZALKENT · PPG 0.80

METALOURG · PPG 1.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gazalkent (H) 21.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Metalourg (A) 54.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gazalkent face Metalourg in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gazalkent a 21% chance, the draw 24% and Metalourg 55%, so Metalourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gazalkent and 1.7 for Metalourg (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gazalkent are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Metalourg.