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SSV Merten vs Hennef Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 23 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

SSV Merten

PPG 2.10 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hennef

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.10), Away POOR (0.82) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.1%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-17.6%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.8%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-18.7%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.0% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 11.6% — — —

Over 2.5 65.4% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 54.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.1%

H 72% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSV Merten2.5

Hennef0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SSV MERTEN · PPG 2.10

HENNEF · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.10), Away POOR (0.82) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

SSV Merten (H) 72.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hennef (A) 11.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSV Merten face Hennef in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSV Merten a 72% chance, the draw 17% and Hennef 12%, so SSV Merten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for SSV Merten and 0.9 for Hennef (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSV Merten are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.82 for Hennef. This match finished 4-0.

SSV Merten vs Hennef Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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