Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Thróttur Vogar vs Hvíti riddarinn

Thróttur Vogar vs Hvíti riddarinn Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 19:15

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hvíti riddarinn

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.8%1-19.6%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.3%3-16.8%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thróttur Vogar2.1

Hvíti riddarinn1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 1.86

HVÍTI RIDDARINN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Thróttur Vogar (H) 55.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hvíti riddarinn (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Thróttur Vogar face Hvíti riddarinn in Iceland - 2. Deild on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thróttur Vogar a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Hvíti riddarinn 22%, so Thróttur Vogar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Thróttur Vogar and 1.1 for Hvíti riddarinn (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thróttur Vogar are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.67 for Hvíti riddarinn.

Thróttur Vogar vs Hvíti riddarinn Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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