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SF Duren vs Bornheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 23 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

SF Duren

PPG 0.91 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bornheim

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.7%0-21.7%0-32.7%0-4+13.1%1 1-00.2%1-11.2%1-22.8%1-34.6%1-4+22.2%2 2-00.2%2-11.0%2-22.4%2-33.9%2-4+18.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.6%3-21.4%3-32.2%3-4+10.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+6.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.8% — — —

Draw 7.7% — — —

Away win 85.4% — — —

Over 2.5 95.9% — — —

Over 3.5 89.2% — — —

BTTS 81.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)4.9 BTTS prob81.1%

A 85% / xG 1.7-4.9 / O2.5 96% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 5.6%

#2 1–5 5.4%

#3 2–4 4.8%

#4 2–5 4.6%

#5 1–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SF Duren1.7

Bornheim4.9

COMBINED 6.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 95.9% · O3.5 PROB 89.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SF DUREN · PPG 0.91

BORNHEIM · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.91), Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

SF Duren (H) 6.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bornheim (A) 85.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SF Duren face Bornheim in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SF Duren a 7% chance, the draw 8% and Bornheim 85%, so Bornheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for SF Duren and 4.9 for Bornheim (6.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 96% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SF Duren are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.10 for Bornheim. This match finished 0-0.

SF Duren vs Bornheim Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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