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Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 01:00

Cavalry FC

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.5%1-17.6%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-17.6%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-18.3%4+-23.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 70.4% 1.42 -11.7%

Draw 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

Away win 17.7% 17.4% 5.75 +1.1%

Over 2.5 63.6% 65.4% 1.53 -2.7%

Over 3.5 40.6% 44.4% 2.25 -8.6%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 30.8% 3.25 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 46.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 3–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cavalry FC2.4

Supra du Quebec0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CAVALRY FC · PPG 2.20

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 2.20 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cavalry FC (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -11.7%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Supra du Quebec (A) 17.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavalry FC face Supra du Quebec in Canada - Premier League on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavalry FC a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Supra du Quebec 18%, so Cavalry FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cavalry FC and 0.8 for Supra du Quebec (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavalry FC are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Supra du Quebec. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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