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York United vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:00

York United

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Forge

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+13.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-110.5%0-211.7%0-38.7%0-4+8.2%1 1-03.9%1-18.7%1-29.7%1-37.2%1-4+6.8%2 2-01.6%2-13.6%2-24.0%2-33.0%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 20.8% 4.80 -22.0%

Draw 20.8% 27.0% 3.70 -13.8%

Away win 66.0% 61.0% 1.64 +8.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 56.5% 1.77 +12.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 33.9% 2.95 +18.0%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 28.6% 3.50 +16.6%

Away O1.5 67.0% 58.8% 1.70 +13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.4%

A 66% / xG 0.8-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.7%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 0–3 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

York United0.8

Forge2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YORK UNITED · PPG 1.40

FORGE · PPG 2.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.41 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

York United (H) 13.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -22.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.8%

Forge (A) 66.0%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

York United face Forge in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives York United a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Forge 66%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for York United and 2.2 for Forge (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, York United are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.50 for Forge. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%.

York United vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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