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Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 17:00

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Forge

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-114.6%0-211.1%0-35.6%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.3%2-14.9%2-23.7%2-31.9%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 22.5% 4.45 +0.6%

Draw 25.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.3%

Away win 51.6% 58.1% 1.72 -11.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 33.7% 29.9% 3.35 +12.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 56.5% 1.77 -11.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.8%

A 52% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 14.6%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Supra du Quebec0.8

Forge1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.40

FORGE · PPG 2.40

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Supra du Quebec (H) 22.7%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +0.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.3%

Forge (A) 51.6%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Supra du Quebec face Forge in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Supra du Quebec a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Forge 52%, so Forge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Supra du Quebec and 1.5 for Forge (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.40 for Forge. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.9%.

Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Canada - Premier League Predictions