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Xi'an Ronghai vs Nantong Haimen Codion Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 08:00

Xi'an Ronghai

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nantong Haimen Codion

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.1%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.7%1-112.0%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-18.9%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Draw 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

Away win 20.0% 28.6% 3.50 -18.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 42.6% 2.35 +10.0%

Over 3.5 26.7% 24.7% 4.05 +4.9%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 46.3% 43.5% 2.30 +6.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xi'an Ronghai1.5

Nantong Haimen Codion0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

XI'AN RONGHAI · PPG 1.88

NANTONG HAIMEN CODION · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xi'an Ronghai (H) 53.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +7.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.8%

Nantong Haimen Codion (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xi'an Ronghai face Nantong Haimen Codion in China - League Two on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xi'an Ronghai a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Nantong Haimen Codion 20%, so Xi'an Ronghai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Xi'an Ronghai and 0.8 for Nantong Haimen Codion (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xi'an Ronghai are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.75 for Nantong Haimen Codion. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Xi'an Ronghai vs Nantong Haimen Codion Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions