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Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Wuhan Three Towns II Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 11:30

Hubei Chufeng Heli

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wuhan Three Towns II

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-15.0%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-19.5%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.1%3-15.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-14.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 58.8% 1.70 +1.1%

Draw 22.1% 31.3% 3.20 -17.6%

Away win 18.4% 21.1% 4.75 -7.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 43.5% 2.30 +15.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 24.4% 4.10 +10.6%

BTTS 48.5% 48.1% 2.08 +0.9%

Home O1.5 55.7% 49.5% 2.02 +12.5%

Away O1.5 19.2% 21.1% 4.75 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hubei Chufeng Heli1.9

Wuhan Three Towns II0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HUBEI CHUFENG HELI · PPG 2.00

WUHAN THREE TOWNS II · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hubei Chufeng Heli (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +1.1%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.6%

Wuhan Three Towns II (A) 18.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hubei Chufeng Heli face Wuhan Three Towns II in China - League Two on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hubei Chufeng Heli a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Wuhan Three Towns II 18%, so Hubei Chufeng Heli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hubei Chufeng Heli and 0.6 for Wuhan Three Towns II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hubei Chufeng Heli are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.62 for Wuhan Three Towns II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.7%.

Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Wuhan Three Towns II Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions