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Xiamen Feilu vs Langfang Glory City Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 08:00

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Langfang Glory City

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.9% — a clear edge.

+12.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.5%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-19.3%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.7%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 65.4% 1.53 -12.8%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Away win 20.4% 18.2% 5.50 +7.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 45.5% 2.20 +18.6%

Over 3.5 33.3% 25.8% 3.88 +29.2%

BTTS 52.3% 44.6% 2.24 +17.2%

Home O1.5 61.8% 54.9% 1.82 +12.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 17.1% 5.85 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xiamen Feilu2.1

Langfang Glory City0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 2.00

LANGFANG GLORY CITY · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xiamen Feilu (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -12.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Langfang Glory City (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xiamen Feilu face Langfang Glory City in China - League Two on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xiamen Feilu a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Langfang Glory City 20%, so Xiamen Feilu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Xiamen Feilu and 0.8 for Langfang Glory City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xiamen Feilu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Langfang Glory City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.2%.

Xiamen Feilu vs Langfang Glory City Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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