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Haugesund II vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 17:00

Haugesund II

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Varhaug

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.5%0-25.9%0-34.2%0-4+3.7%1 1-03.9%1-18.3%1-28.9%1-36.4%1-4+5.7%2 2-03.0%2-16.3%2-26.8%2-34.9%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.5%3-32.5%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 49.9% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 54.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.5%

A 50% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haugesund II1.5

Varhaug2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUGESUND II · PPG 1.20

VARHAUG · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.62 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Haugesund II (H) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varhaug (A) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Haugesund II face Varhaug in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haugesund II a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Varhaug 50%, so Varhaug are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Haugesund II and 2.1 for Varhaug (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haugesund II are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.60 for Varhaug.

Haugesund II vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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