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Mandalskameratene vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Mandalskameratene

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Staal Jørpeland

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.5%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.2%1-18.1%1-25.2%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.6%3-17.3%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-17.3%4+-24.7%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 66.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 62.7% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 38.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.7%

H 55% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mandalskameratene2.3

Staal Jørpeland1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MANDALSKAMERATENE · PPG 1.83

STAAL JØRPELAND · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mandalskameratene (H) 55.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Staal Jørpeland (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mandalskameratene face Staal Jørpeland in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mandalskameratene a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Staal Jørpeland 23%, so Mandalskameratene are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Mandalskameratene and 1.3 for Staal Jørpeland (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mandalskameratene are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.60 for Staal Jørpeland.

Mandalskameratene vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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