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Madla vs Flekkerøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Madla

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flekkerøy

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.6%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.9%1-19.3%1-26.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.8%3-16.5%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 25.0% — — —

Over 2.5 64.3% — — —

Over 3.5 42.1% — — —

BTTS 63.8% — — —

Home O1.5 59.0% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.8%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Madla2.0

Flekkerøy1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MADLA · PPG 2.33

FLEKKERØY · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Madla (H) 53.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Flekkerøy (A) 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Madla face Flekkerøy in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Madla a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Flekkerøy 25%, so Madla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Madla and 1.3 for Flekkerøy (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Madla are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Flekkerøy.

Madla vs Flekkerøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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