Today / Norway - 1st Division / Odd vs Haugesund

Odd vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 14:00

Odd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haugesund

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.4%0-21.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.0%1-14.1%1-24.1%1-32.7%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.1%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.0%3-16.0%3-26.1%3-34.1%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-19.5%4+-29.5%4+-36.3%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 42.6% 2.35 +24.6%

Draw 19.7% 26.7% 3.75 -15.7%

Away win 27.3% 40.8% 2.45 -19.9%

Over 2.5 75.7% 75.2% 1.33 +0.7%

Over 3.5 53.2% 55.6% 1.80 -4.2%

BTTS 69.1% 78.1% 1.28 -11.6%

Home O1.5 75.0% 61.7% 1.62 +21.5%

Away O1.5 49.8% 59.9% 1.67 -16.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.1%

H 53% / xG 3.0-2.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 2–1 6.1%

#3 3–2 6.1%

#4 3–1 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Odd3.0

Haugesund2.0

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ODD · PPG 2.00

HAUGESUND · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Odd (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +24.6%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -15.7%

Haugesund (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Odd face Haugesund in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Odd a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Haugesund 27%, so Odd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Odd and 2.0 for Haugesund (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Odd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Haugesund. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +50.8%.