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Sogndal vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Sogndal

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ranheim

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.1%0-21.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-01.6%1-13.4%1-23.6%1-32.5%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.6%2-15.4%2-25.7%2-34.0%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.8%3-15.8%3-26.0%3-34.2%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-110.2%4+-210.6%4+-37.4%4+-4+6.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 48.8% 2.05 +18.7%

Draw 17.8% 25.6% 3.90 -18.4%

Away win 24.3% 35.1% 2.85 -18.4%

Over 2.5 79.6% 78.1% 1.28 +1.9%

Over 3.5 57.5% 58.8% 1.70 -2.3%

BTTS 69.5% 80.0% 1.25 -13.1%

Home O1.5 77.3% 67.6% 1.48 +14.4%

Away O1.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.5%

H 58% / xG 3.2-2.1 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.0%

#2 3–1 5.8%

#3 2–2 5.7%

#4 2–1 5.4%

#5 4–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal3.2

Ranheim2.1

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL · PPG 1.67

RANHEIM · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal (H) 57.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +18.7%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -18.4%

Ranheim (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal face Ranheim in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal a 58% chance, the draw 18% and Ranheim 24%, so Sogndal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Sogndal and 2.1 for Ranheim (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.50 for Ranheim. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.9%.

Sogndal vs Ranheim Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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