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Stromsgodset vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

Stromsgodset

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lyn

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.3%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.8%1-14.3%1-21.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.1%2-17.2%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-18.0%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.9%4+-115.8%4+-27.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.7% 75.2% 1.33 -3.3%

Draw 17.6% 19.6% 5.10 -6.1%

Away win 9.7% 15.2% 6.60 -21.6%

Over 2.5 67.7% 80.0% 1.25 -15.4%

Over 3.5 49.7% 58.8% 1.70 -15.5%

BTTS 55.4% 70.4% 1.42 -21.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 82.0% 1.22 -5.7%

Away O1.5 24.7% 37.7% 2.65 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 73% / xG 3.4-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.1%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 4–0 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stromsgodset3.4

Lyn0.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMSGODSET · PPG 2.71

LYN · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.48 for Home, form 2.71 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Stromsgodset (H) 72.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -3.3%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -6.1%

Lyn (A) 9.7%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stromsgodset face Lyn in Norway - 1st Division on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stromsgodset a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Lyn 10%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Stromsgodset and 0.9 for Lyn (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stromsgodset are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.17 for Lyn.

Stromsgodset vs Lyn Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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