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Fana vs Forde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Fana

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Forde

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 86.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0% — a clear edge.

+18.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.9%0-20.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.8%1-13.2%1-22.8%1-31.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.2%2-15.6%2-24.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.7%3-16.6%3-25.8%3-33.4%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-114.0%4+-212.3%4+-37.2%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 58.8% 1.70 -4.6%

Draw 20.6% 22.2% 4.50 -4.4%

Away win 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

Over 2.5 79.0% 78.1% 1.28 +1.1%

Over 3.5 55.6% 58.1% 1.72 -4.4%

BTTS 65.9% 76.9% 1.30 -14.3%

Home O1.5 86.3% 73.0% 1.37 +18.2%

Away O1.5 52.4% 50.3% 1.99 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 91%

Score Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.9%

H 56% / xG 3.5-1.8 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.6%

#2 3–2 5.8%

#3 4–1 5.7%

#4 2–1 5.6%

#5 4–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fana3.5

Forde1.8

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FANA · PPG 1.75

FORDE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

Fana (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -4.6%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.4%

Forde (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fana face Forde in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fana a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Forde 23%, so Fana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Fana and 1.8 for Forde (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fana are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Forde. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Fana vs Forde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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