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Melhus vs Herd Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:30

Melhus

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Herd

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.6%0-23.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.6%1-19.0%1-27.1%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.6%3-15.7%3-24.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.4%4+-23.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 31.7% — — —

Over 2.5 66.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.1% — — —

BTTS 64.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.5%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melhus2.0

Herd1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MELHUS · PPG 1.80

HERD · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Melhus (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Herd (A) 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Melhus face Herd in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melhus a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Herd 32%, so Melhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Melhus and 1.6 for Herd (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melhus are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.17 for Herd.

Melhus vs Herd Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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