Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 / Nardo vs Rosenborg B

Nardo vs Rosenborg B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Nardo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rosenborg B

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.3%0-21.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-01.7%1-13.7%1-24.1%1-33.0%1-4+2.7%2 2-02.5%2-15.5%2-26.1%2-34.4%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.5%3-15.5%3-26.0%3-34.4%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-18.5%4+-29.3%4+-36.8%4+-4+6.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 47.6% 2.10 +9.6%

Draw 20.7% 24.4% 4.10 -9.1%

Away win 27.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.4%

Over 2.5 80.0% 78.1% 1.28 +2.4%

Over 3.5 58.6% 56.2% 1.78 +4.3%

BTTS 65.9% 78.1% 1.28 -15.7%

Home O1.5 79.7% 63.3% 1.58 +25.9%

Away O1.5 64.4% 58.5% 1.71 +10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob65.9%

H 52% / xG 3.0-2.2 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.5%

#4 3–1 5.5%

#5 4–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nardo3.0

Rosenborg B2.2

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 58.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NARDO · PPG 1.50

ROSENBORG B · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Nardo (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +9.6%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.1%

Rosenborg B (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nardo face Rosenborg B in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nardo a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Rosenborg B 27%, so Nardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Nardo and 2.2 for Rosenborg B (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nardo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Rosenborg B. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Nardo vs Rosenborg B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions