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Aalesund II vs Orkla Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Aalesund II

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orkla

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.9%0-23.6%0-32.9%0-4+3.2%1 1-02.3%1-15.8%1-27.1%1-35.8%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.3%2-15.7%2-27.0%2-35.7%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.5%3-13.7%3-24.6%3-33.8%3-4+4.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.9%4+-23.6%4+-32.9%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 49.6% — — —

Over 2.5 72.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.0% — — —

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 67.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob69.5%

A 50% / xG 2.0-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.1%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 1–3 5.8%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund II2.0

Orkla2.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND II · PPG 0.60

ORKLA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund II (H) 30.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Orkla (A) 49.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund II face Orkla in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund II a 30% chance, the draw 20% and Orkla 50%, so Orkla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aalesund II and 2.5 for Orkla (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund II are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.40 for Orkla.

Aalesund II vs Orkla Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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